Here are the bones. Listen to the show for the meat.
Boom Boom’s Picks
Broncos -10 at Chiefs (Herm)
Cardinals +1 at Jets
Chargers -7.5 at Raiders
Eagles -3 at Bears
Four road teams, three favored, one dog.
Gregory’s Picks
Broncos at Chiefs, over 47 (win, 19-33)
49ers at Saints, over 48.5 (loss, 17-31)
Bills at Rams, over 43 (win, 31-14)
Option Pick (if other picks win)
Eagles at Bears, over 40 (win, 20-24)
All over/under picks for Gregory.
From the Sports Column Bar in the shadow of Coors Field in beautiful Denver, CO
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Listening to Sirius NFL Radio and hearing a report on the Titans I’m feeling good about laying 5 with them at home against the Texans, who did not play last week. Titans are so far allowing only 3.6 yards per play, leading the AFC. Eight sacks (7 against Jacksonville last week) also leads. They have a rookie running back, Chris Johnson, who is tearing up the grid iron with 5.9 yards average on 34 carries.
Got the over on Giants-Bengals at 41.5. Giants also might cover at -13.
Looks like the weather is pretty good across the country with the exception of Seattle, where it’s looking like rain and wind up to 20 mph. The awful Rams are visiting and Seattle hasn’t been that great, so the under 44 could be a bonus pick at 4 o’clock. I committed on the radio show to Broncos -5.5 vs. Saints at 4, but now I’m considering a bonus pick of over 51.5 pending the weather, which could include some light rain.
I also locked into Dallas -3 at the Packers tonight but again I’m looking at a bonus pick of the over 51 now that the weather will definately be clear and condering AJ’s reasearch that these two teams have the hit the over 9 out of the last 10 times they’ve met. So the over should be a solid choice.
From Ruby’s Roadhouse in beautiful Mandeville, LA, with guest AJ from Madison.
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Well, we just laid out our thoughts on Week 2, and I better start digging myself out of the hole I’ve managed to already make for myself.
Gregory and I have to remember that in this evil, epic battle between head and heart, we have to go more with the head …
Clearly, I had my head somewhere else last week, going one for four. This is of course atrocious, particularly when considering the over-500 average we’ve had the last couple of seasons. Or close to it.
Oh well, let’s see if my three [knuckle?] head picks — Giants/Rams over 41.5; Jets -1 and Cowboys -6.5 — outweigh my heart pick of the Saints -1.
Check back and see how well our body parts shake out in Week 2. Now get out there and win! — Boom Boom
From the Sands Hotel in beautiful Las Vegas, NV
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After a lot of hemming and hawing over the last few days, I made a last-minute call on two games. I’ll lay 8.5 with the Eagles at home against the Rams and I’ll take a moneyline position on the Lions in Atlanta at -170. From what I can gather, the Eagles have a pretty good team going this year and are setting their sites high. The Rams are said to be awful. I’m a little worried about the points, at 8.5. But what are you going to do? Likewise with the Lions. I was a little worried about laying on the road but I’m pretty sure the Lions will win the game. Good luck, everybody.
I was on the edge of my seat for the last minutes of the Skins-Jints game and fully expecting the Skins to score a late touchdown to make it 16-14 and ruin my -4.5 spread. But the Giants held on, and my foolhardy opener was saved.
The Giants irritated me, as they do, by not scoring one single point in the second half. The game opened with a long drive and 7 points by the Giants, which gave me hope that I had made the right call. Then three field goals and I was feeling even better, thinking they’ll tack on at least 10 more points. Then disaster struck when the Skins got a big runback into Giant territory and then a touchdown with just seconds to go. Suddenly the 16-0 lead was cut to 16-7 and I started to worry the 4 and half points to death. I could see disaster coming as it has so many times before with the Giants. Somehow, it didn’t happen.
Looks to me like the Skins might eventually have a fairly exciting offense, once Jim Zorn gets the West Coast style entrenched. “Exciting offense” are two words that haven’t been used together lately when describing the Washington Redskins. At least not since the high flying days of quarterback Doug Williams. But we’ll have to wait and see. Right now, I think the Skins might end up on the bottom of the NFC East, by default if nothing else, given the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, who all should have pretty good teams.
One thing I’ll take into the weekend is to keep an eye the under. That was a trend I noticed at the end of preseason, tough I haven’t actually gone back and verified that it was true. It just seemed to me at a cursory glance that a majority of games were going under. Last night, at 23, was way under the 41.5. And I think in the end that would have been the safest and smartest postition. Going with the spread in these first week games . . . well you have to be a fortune teller or just lucky as all heck. Which I was last night.
All I’ve been hearing all week from Giants fans is no one respects the Giants. It’s the same thing they’ve been saying for years, which is why a lot of people hate the Giants. What do you want? They won the Super Bowl. Isn’t that enough? Now you want to be hailed as the greatest team in history?
Fact is, with parity these days, the team that wins it all is usually only marginally better than the rest of the pack. And usually there’s an element of luck involved as well. The Steelers had a nice run at the end of 2005-06. The Giants had a nice run in 2007-08. In both cases, a couple of plays here or there could have changed the outcome. It wasn’t like the Giants dominated any of the three teams it beat. Dallas could have won. Green Bay could have won. The Patriots should have won.
What really ticked the Giants fans off, was the -4 line, which now has moved to -4.5. The fans felt like it should be I don’t what, maybe -10? They felt like winning the Super Bowl put them in a place where they should be considered elite. But that’s something obviously the oddsmakers are not quite ready to do. When I pointed out to one Giants fan that Vegas sets the opening line and not the gambling public, he responded that the anti-Giant bias was nationwide. OK. See what I mean? When you hear stuff like that you get a little hacked off and tend to go against the Jints.
But I’d like to think I’m above all that. That I can look at the facts in front of me and use by brain to make a perfectly wrong decision without any help from my heart. Which is why I took a look today at the Skins. Now, I know one thing: the Skins usually play the Jints tough. And maybe that’s where the line is coming from. But then I took a look at the upheaval in management and coaching at the Skins and the performance in the preseason, and, well, I gotta say, it’s kinda scary.
Jim Zorn is the new coach, having never even been a coordinator before. Not to mention, he’s also the serving as offensive coordinator. Not enough that he’s wearing one all new big hat but two. Likewise with the defensive coordinator. He’s never worked at that level before. And the preseason? The Skins got skinned in the last two games badly. The offense did nothing.
Which brings me, short story long, to the pick. After a lot of anguish, and having been burned by the Giants on many occasions, and swore I would never touch them again, I decided the -4.5 looked pretty good and I’m locking it in. I hope I’m not crying tomorrow morning.
Thursday night is a whopper of a night, nearly the end of NFL preseason (the last games are Friday night). For wagerers, it’s the end of a risky season before plunging into an even more risky season, the regular. Week four is the most uncertain of all next to week one. In week four, everyone is terrified of injuries. So they pretty much just go through the motions. Jets head coach Eric Mangenius even said today that he’s leaning toward NOT playing Brett Favre Thursday night. So obviously he doesn’t care about winning and he doesn’t need any more convincing that Favre is ready to roll. Trying to pick winners this week against the spread or over-under is almost impossible. Which means we’ll be giving it a shot. Check back, probably just before game time Thursday night.
